Donald Trump is not on the ballot on 3 November, but the midterms will still be read as a verdict on his second term. While the midterm odds focus on who controls the House and Senate, a smaller market looks at something far simpler: the colour of the tie he wears when he speaks about the results. His record at big political moments gives punters more to work with than it might seem.
Why tie colours matter in politics
Red has been the classic power tie since the boardroom culture of the 1980s, and it is also the Republican Party’s colour. Blue reads as calmer and belongs to the Democrats. Purple sits between the two and is often taken as a nod to unity across the parties.
All seven male candidates at the first Republican presidential debate in August 2023 wore a red tie, according to the Deseret News. A Vox count of the 2012 Republican debates found 38% of candidates in red and 30% in blue.
Why people bet on the president’s tie
Tie markets settle on one visible fact, so there is rarely an argument about the result. They also reward homework, because a president’s wardrobe follows patterns that anyone can study.
Trump’s ties at recent political moments
On midterm night in 2022, Trump spoke to supporters at Mar-a-Lago in his signature red tie, as Business Insider reported.
His second inauguration on 20 January 2025 was the upset. One US sportsbook priced red at 1/25, with blue at 10/1 and pink or purple at 12/1. He wore a muted purple tie made up of tiny red and blue blocks, while JD Vance stuck to bright red.
At his address to Congress on 4 March 2025, Trump chose a $227 Italo Ferretti silk tie with a red dotted pattern on a navy background, WWD reported. He went back to red for the State of the Union on 24 February 2026, and the Polymarket market settled on red.
That is red at two of his last four big set pieces, with one navy tie and one purple.
How past presidents compare
Barack Obama offers the clearest midterm pattern. He wore red for his first three addresses to Congress in 2009 and 2010. After the 2010 midterms handed Republicans the House, he switched to blue for four of his next five, with the 2012 State of the Union the only exception, according to analysis by Smart Politics.
That left Obama level at four red and four blue across his first eight addresses. Joe Biden opened his presidency in blue, wearing a pale blue tie for his 2021 inauguration.
The colours Trump is most likely to wear
The result itself may decide the colour, because Trump’s election night speeches have been given at party events rather than state occasions.
Red
Red is the clear favourite. It matches the party he leads and is what he wore on the last midterm night and at the last State of the Union. A good night for Republicans would almost certainly bring it out.
Navy or blue
Blue is the main alternative. Trump has worn navy for a formal address in his second term, and Obama’s move to blue after losing the House suggests a heavy midterm defeat can change a president’s look. The seat totals are worth studying across the wider political betting markets, and blue looks the value pick if the House changes hands.
Purple
Purple is the outsider. Trump has worn it once at a major event, for a ceremony that was about the whole country rather than one party. On a night built around party results, it would be a surprise.
Since returning to office, Trump has worn red at only one of his three biggest set pieces. Red remains the likeliest colour on 3 November, but it is far from the certainty the 1/25 inauguration price suggested.
Featured image credit: Gage Skidmore via Wikimedia Commons
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