As climate change continues to destabilise the global South, Croydon coffee roasters expect coffee prices to increase further, warning that shops and customers might start to feel the impact.
Yet, for the London coffee shop owners who spoke to The SWLondoner, the boiling over of the global coffee market was the last thing on their minds.
According to Trading Economics, arabica coffee futures — a global benchmark for coffee commodity prices — peaked on the 20th October at over $4.20 a pound.
At the beginning of last year, it was just above $1.80.
Last year, the world’s largest global coffee supplier, Brazil, experienced its most intense and widespread drought since records began in 1950.
Vietnam, another major global coffee exporter, has also been experiencing its own share of extreme weather.
Coffee, a commodity that must be grown in tropical climates, is likely to be significantly threatened as the Earth grows hotter.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations body, predicts a significant drop in coffee yields and suitable coffee-growing land by 2050.
Problems are far closer to home for London’s coffee shops
For Chris Evangelidis, owner of Twickenham’s Django’s Speciality Coffee House, all his effort has gone into not increasing his prices.
So far, however, he has found that coffee price rises have been minor, only paying an extra 50p per kilo.
His true Achilles heel has been operational costs, amidst a transitional phase as he expands with two new Django’s.
He said: “The wages went up, the minimum salary went up, all this kind of stuff went up.”
Evangelidis has never raised prices at his Twickenham branch, but has found that his rising costs have forced his hand.
For Suleyman Demir, owner and manager at Café Nova Bistro, the walls of the coffee industry feel like they are closing in.
He’s been finding that both milk and coffee prices have been increasing twice a year.
At the same time, Suleyman feels pressure to maintain a consistent base of customers with a high-quality service.
Demir said: “We are earning less money, but we are putting that all into our customer service.”
Demir is also concerned about the rise in subscription offers and free coffee from big coffee corporations, supermarkets and petrol stations.
He said: “They should stop doing these things.
“Otherwise, independent cafes that can’t offer similar schemes will close.”
The Café Nova Owner says that his belief in the future of his café is based on the loyalty of his regulars.
Demir said: “We have lovely customers, so whilst a rise in prices may have an effect, many will come back so long as we can keep them happy.”
London coffee roasters have been drinking the poisoned elixir of burgeoning prices
Closer to the initial source, however, coffee roasters say that coffee shops are yet to be struck by the tsunami of inflated coffee bean costs.
Coffee roasters have so far been swallowing much of the rise in coffee prices.
Croydon-based 80 Stone Coffee Roasters, named after the weight they guessed for their first coffee roaster on UK import documents, is a small team situated in an industrial park.
Consisting of a small warehouse space with an office, together the team have engineered an environment where coffee shops and businesses can expect their orders to be supplied, and customers can just pop in.
Founder and owners Simone Guerini Rocco and Roberto D’alessandro decided to sell their London coffee shops in 2018 and move up the coffee food chain to the roastery side of the business.
Coffee roasting is a process that involves taking the ‘green beans’ (technically a seed) and turning it into the brown and bitter husk many Londoners know and love.
80 Stone imports the majority of its coffee from Honduras and Peru, as well as a minor amount from Brazil.
Coffee Roaster Rory Cafferkey, who has been at 80 Stone for two and a half years, said: “The price of coffee has always been increasing, with COVID being a main point before I joined 80 Stone.
“But it was earlier this year, in the beginning of February, or even before that, when the prices really started to increase due to the extreme weather in Brazil and Vietnam.”
For Cafferkey, however, the increase in prices is something that has so far been swallowed up in the food chain by coffee roasters.
Cafferkey said: “I think that in terms of coffee shops, an increase in prices doesn’t really trouble them, because most of the time it’s roasters that are eating up that cost.
“It’s very competitive for roasters — at the end of the day, a coffee shop can only wear its loyalty so much.
“It’s like when you go to a supermarket: sometimes it’s for the quality, but sometimes it’s down to the price as well. You have to be very competitive.”
Cafferkey said that there will be price increases in the near future, but for 80 Stone, communication is key, so their customers don’t get a shock when prices go up.
Founder and owner Rocco agreed and said he’d seen other roasteries having similar problems.
Rocco said: “We do notice a lot of inquiries coming to us saying, coffee prices have gone up too much.
“Because it’s so global and is literally affecting all roasters, we just try and be reasonable and honest.”
For Rocco, however, a shortage on the supply side of things does have a silver lining.
He said: “There are some producers, in places like Honduras, who only a few years ago used to get a certain amount for a kilo of coffee.
“And now they are getting double as much, which is good for them.
“I feel like whilst we are going to lose out, they’re gaining so much more than what we lose, and they totally deserve it.
“So that makes me feel so good. That is kind of cool, you know?”
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