Hollywood’s biggest stars may no longer be the biggest reason audiences buy cinema tickets, analysis of box office data has shown.
Ahead of the release of Project Hail Mary, Amazon MGM distribution executive Kevin Wilson described Ryan Gosling as “a singular star that has the massive global appeal and charisma to anchor a story like this”.
Compare that to a few years earlier, when Quentin Tarantino argued actors such as Chris Evans were not true movie stars because his character “Captain America is the star”.
Together, the comments expose a growing tension inside Hollywood.
Studios still rely on recognisable actors to market films, but increasingly those actors appear to need the support of major franchises, famous directors, or existing fanbases behind them.
Modern box office trends increasingly support Tarantino’s argument.
A dataset examining films starring a range of leading contemporary actors found that 58% were adapted screenplays or based on existing intellectual property, compared to just 42% original screenplays.
Additionally, adapted and IP-based films achieved a median worldwide box office gross of approximately $538 million, compared to around $193 million for original films.
The figures suggest audiences increasingly favour recognisable brands over actors alone.
But film TikTok creator Florence Rose (@florencerose._) argues that does not necessarily mean audiences no longer care about actors.
Florence said: “I think the term movie star has changed in its meaning.
“I don’t think Timothée Chalamet is a movie star in the sense of old Hollywood stars like Marilyn Monroe or James Dean.”
Rather than disappearing, Florence believes movie stardom has simply become less exclusive.
Actors are now constantly visible through TikTok clips, interviews, junkets and social media in a way older Hollywood stars never were.
Florence added: “Movie stars feel way more accessible and reachable than they used to. You see their face for a good six months.
“I also think there are a lot more well-known actors today than there used to be. It used to be just a small group.
“I think it’s such an oversaturated market that the definition of movie star has changed.”
That oversaturation may help explain why modern actors struggle to dominate popular culture in the way stars such as Marilyn Monroe or Tom Cruise once could.
The same trend appears across the wider box office landscape, as of the ten highest-grossing films of all time, 60% belong to established franchises.
Even among films technically classified as original screenplays, half still exist within wider franchise universes, blurring the distinction between originality and IP-driven filmmaking.
Screen International box office editor Charles Gant says modern cinema now operates in multiple ways at once.
He said: “The film and cinema economy is diverse and multifaceted, and several things can be true at once.
“Existing IP continues to dominate globally, but we simultaneously have seen a rise in original content.”
Gant points to Sinners, Weapons and One Battle After Another as examples of original filmmaking still generating major audience interest.
He added: “The power of niche fandoms, seen most impact fully in the box office for certain Japanese anime titles such as Demon Slayer, as well as the rise of the YouTube creator filmmakers evidenced by the current hit Obsession.”
Yet Gant argued stars still matter commercially, particularly when attached to original films that require audiences to take a risk on unfamiliar material.
Gant said: “Sinners was absolutely powered by the casting of charismatic movie star Michael B Jordan in a dual role.
“One Battle After Another would not have achieved its box office breakthrough without the star power of Leonardo DiCaprio.”
The shift is reflected in the data, with actors such as Robert Downey Jr., Tom Holland and Chris Evans appearing overwhelmingly in IP-driven films.
By contrast, actors such as Leonardo DiCaprio, Ryan Gosling and Brad Pitt maintained stronger balances between franchise and original projects, suggesting stars still hold value when helping audiences engage with unfamiliar stories.
That divide raises questions about what qualifies someone as a modern movie star.
Zoe Saldaña, for example, holds one of the highest-grossing filmographies in cinema history through the Avatar and Marvel franchises, despite many audiences struggling to identify her outside those roles.
The data also reveals a contradiction at the centre of Hollywood.
While franchise films dominate financially, original films continue to perform slightly better critically.
Just 14% of adapted screenplay films in the dataset received award wins or nominations, compared to 16% of original screenplay films.
The figures suggest original storytelling may still hold greater prestige, even as franchises dominate commercially.
Gant believes the industry no longer produces the kind of stars who could once guarantee huge box office returns regardless of reviews.
Gant said: “Tom Cruise could be in a film not so well received, I’m thinking Vanilla Sky, and the film still opened and did $203m worldwide at 2001 ticket prices.”
He also points to Will Smith’s Seven Pounds, which grossed $170m worldwide despite poor reviews.
He said: “It’s hard to think of an actor today that could power indifferent material to those kind of numbers.”
As actors become less reliable box office guarantees, directors increasingly appear to be filling that space.
Filmmakers such as Christopher Nolan and Greta Gerwig now function as recognisable brands capable of attracting audiences regardless of cast.
Florence said: “If Greta Gerwig is attached to a project, people are immediately interested.”
Gant recently witnessed that dynamic himself while watching a trailer for The Odyssey.
He said: “Two young women on my row reacted with excitement to Tom Holland’s face appearing on the screen.
“That cast, in addition to Nolan, of course, is part of Universal’s insurance hedged against a generous production budget.”
Marketing and online discussion have also become central to how audiences engage with films.
Florence argues platforms such as TikTok and Letterboxd have transformed cinema into a shared online conversation.
Florence said: “People want to be part of that conversation. If everyone online is talking about a film, you want to go and see it before it gets spoiled.”
Hollywood still relies on recognisable faces to market films.
But increasingly those faces operate alongside franchises, directors, online fandoms and social media ecosystems rather than functioning as standalone guarantees of success.
Florence said: “It’s not that Hollywood has stopped creating movie stars. Audiences just value things differently now.”
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