The bookies didn’t see it coming.
After the lewd Donald Trump tapes were released, Paddy Power decided the presidential race was a foregone conclusion and it would pay out without delay on bets for Hillary Clinton to win.
Editors of popular political predictions site fivethirtyeight.com also pegged Clinton as heavy favourite, with up to 78% chance of victory.
Trump’s chances were as low as 20%. By the end of decision night, the roles had completely flipped – Trump was up to 81% chance of winning and Clinton had slumped to 17%.
Even Nate Silver, a statistics guru who made the perfect call for the 2012 US presidential election, just yesterday predicted Trump had only a 29% chance of winning.
Mr Silver predicted easy victories for Clinton in the key swing states Pennsylvania and Florida, which would have most likely tipped the election in her favour.
But she lost both – and ultimately the election.
This is 2016 and no one can predict what’s going to happen next. Brexit seemed unlikely, even the triggering of Article 50 hangs in the balance.
Another surprise – Trump’s gracious victory speech. The newly elected president took the opportunity to congratulate his opponent ‘and her family for a very hard fought campaign’.
Who knows what may happen between now and Trump’s inauguration on 20 January 2017? One thing we can say with any certainty is, all bets are off!
