South west London‘s marginal seats mean opinion polls and their accuracy will be scrutinised more than ever.
As the general election approaches, polls in seats such as Kensington and Richmond will be subject to much debate.
Flavible Politics predicts the Conservatives will re-take Kensington while new Liberal Democrat candidate Sam Gyimah will push current Labour MP Emma Dent Coad into third place.
Flavible Politics founder George Rushton said: “I believe that a single isolated poll has minimal use.
“A better use of opinion polls is to study them over time. This is to find trends more than the current snapshot.”
Polls widely predicted the Conservatives to hold Kensington in 2017 yet they lost the seat by just 20 votes.
Richmond Park Conservative MP Zac Goldsmith is predicted to lose his 45-vote majority to the Liberal Democrats according to Flavible.
Flavible Politics is a seat projection service that uses census data along with most major opinion polling and previous elections results to predict how a constituency will vote.
Misinterpreting of data is a huge problem that opinion polls face.
Mr Rushton said: “Constituency polling is far more likely to be an accurate representation of the constituency in question.
“Understanding what the data you are looking at is and how it was compiled is very important.”
Flavible Politics uses a unique equation factoring in Brexit voting and age demographics to predict the results.
In the past opinion polls have proved to both be correct and inaccurate.
The Brexit referendum of 2016 famously saw Remain predicted a 55% win in the final poll before the result.
But YouGov’s final poll for the 2017 election successfully predicted to within ten seats of what both Labour and the Conservatives achieved.
You can visit the Flavible website for the latest election prediction in every constituency in Great Britain.
- 70The Labour candidate for Kensington is feeling optimistic after exit polls suggested the Conservative party would not gain a majority. YouGov polls suggested the Kensington seat is a tossup between Labour's Councillor Emma Dent Coad and the Conservative incumbent Victoria Borwick. Cllr Dent Coad suggests that there is a hidden poor in…
- 66While the General Election draws to a close across the country, Kensington remains undeclared. The hotly-contested seat is too close to call between the Labour and Conservative candidates, and due to a prior booking in the counting hall, the count has been suspended. Throughout the night, recounts have been called…
- 59Emma Dent Coad (Labour) 16333, Victoria Borwick (Conservative) 16313, John Robert Lloyd (Alliance for Green Socialism) 49, Peter Charles Christopher Marshall (Independent) 98, Annabel Mullin (Liberal Democrat) 4724, Jennifer Dunham Nadel (Green Party) 767, James William Torrance (Independent) 393 Labour win, majority 20 Turnout: 38,791 More to follow.
- Kensington Tory candidate hits back at flagship right to buy policy which would 'reduce social housing stock'51Kensington’s Conservative candidate has revealed she may fight against her party’s Thatcherite ‘right to buy’ policy as it would severely reduce social housing stock in the area. Victoria Borwick, who used two voice doubles during a housing-centric hustings last week due to illness, throatily told SW Londoner after the event…
- 49Labour candidate Emma Dent Coad has won Kensington after a dramatic triple-recount gave her a 20 vote majority in the final constituency to declare its results from yesterday's election. Conservative candidate Victoria Borwick lost the usually safe Conservative seat after a knife-edge battle, following a series of recounts set in motion…